Thursday, 20 July 2017

Sacramento Getting Good Press. Will It Lead to Good Jobs?

Over the past 2 months, Sacramento is trending in the national press with multiple national stories connecting Sacramento and the Bay Area.  The publicity wave caught the eye of Jack Ohman, the Sac Bee’s very witty cartoonist.

While most of the stories are about real estate, there have also been positive business press extending into the areas of innovation and tech talent.  See these recent articles in the business press,

Bloomberg
Entrepreneur
Wall Street Journal

Barry Broome and the Greater Sacramento Economic Council are trying to take maximum advantage by dialing up their marketing efforts in the Bay Area, and doing their part to keep the good press coming.  Here is Barry making the case for Sacramento on national Bloomberg radio : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2017-07-05/bloomberg-best-from-our-bureaus-worldwide-july-5-audio

Is it real or hype?  Most of the hard data is about Sacramento’s hot residential real estate market sprinkled with some anecdotes about entrepreneurs and people that have migrated to the area.  At this point, there isn’t much data beyond anecdotes to support the idea that Sacramento is seeing a migration wave of skilled workers and businesses.  I have a strong sense that there are skilled workers and businesses taking a look and “kicking the tires” on Sacramento as a destination, more than have been seen in decades.  But will they invest?

It’s easy to be skeptical.  The business news over the past year or so has featured some large private employers like Aerojet and Verizon pulling out of the area.  Most of the business investment news is still about restaurants and real estate (and cannabis).  

A lengthy article this weekend on Sacramento real estate development includes a few quotes from me, but more interesting to me are the ones from some real estate developers.  They aren’t seeing Bay area migrants as young tech talent, but as retirees.  The 55+ “active adult” communities have been the best selling new home product in Sacramento for a while, developers are responding with more 55+ products.  It seems much of the Bay Area demand for Sacramento real estate is from people at the end of their careers, not the beginning or peak.

As I pointed out in our Center’s last forecast update, the trends for the past 5 years show workers are migrating to the Bay Areas, while non-workers are migrating out.  Areas like Sacramento, San Joaquin and Solano Counties have seen very slow labor force growth relative to their population growth - while San Francisco has seen its workforce grow faster than its population - suggesting that it is retirees and families that are being pushed inland.

However, all of this data is backwards looking and no trends last forever.  The urban core of Sacramento is also hot and becoming an exciting place to be.  The emerging Northern California megaregion is very real, and there are many people working to build a more resilient and diverse set of Bay Area connections than real estate refugees of commuters and retirees.

The next two years are going to be very telling for Sacramento.  This may be its best chance to develop its private economy and become more than a government town.

About the Author

Ethan Jacob

Author & Editor

I am Ethan Jacob Executive Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, where I have a joint faculty appointment in the Eberhardt School of Business and the Public Policy Program in the McGeorge School of Law..

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