Monday, 4 February 2013

New County Population Forecasts: Is San Joaquin County growth set to lift off in 2015?

The California Department of Finance released long-term population forecasts at the county level last week.  Their last county level forecasts were issued in 2007.

Overall, their forecast is for significantly slower growth for California, less than 1% annual population growth over the next 50 years.  Their forecast ends in 2060 with a statewide population of 52.7 million and annual population growth falling to below 0.5% and trending down.  If you extrapolate from there, it is unlikely that California sees 60 million in population before 2100.

Despite the slow growth for California, they still predict rapid population growth in the Valley - especially for Kern and San Joaquin County.

In fact, they have San Joaquin County growth accelerating over 2% per year as soon as 2015 and sustaining over 2% growth through 2035.  That is significantly faster than our forecast for San Joaquin County.  According to DOF, San Joaquin County will break 1 million residents by 2030; 75,000 people more than our projection for the same year.  If you use 3 people per house as a simple rule of thumb; that is 25,000 more homes that would be built in the County over the next 20 years than we project - and that is just one of the economic impacts.

While DOF has faster growth than us in some areas, it has slower growth in others, especially in the Bay Areas but also some inland areas such as the Sacramento area.  I am surprised DOF doesn’t see faster growth for Sacramento.  For example, DOF is not projecting Placer County growth to increase substantially from the pace of recent years, remaining barely over one percent for the foreseeable future.  I have a hard time seeing San Joaquin County growing twice as fast as Placer County over the next twenty years; as Placer County has often been the state’s fastest growing county of late.  I still see a lot of room to develop around Roseville, Rocklin and Lincoln.


About the Author

Ethan Jacob

Author & Editor

I am Ethan Jacob Executive Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, where I have a joint faculty appointment in the Eberhardt School of Business and the Public Policy Program in the McGeorge School of Law..

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