Friday, 21 November 2008

Unemployment Friday

The dismal news from the EDD is here.

San Joaquin County data is heading the wrong way fast. Stockton has been amazingly resilient through the housing collapse, with strong growth in Ag-related sectors and a vibrant wholesale, transportation, warehousing sector holding up the local employment picture. However, these two sectors are going to be hit hard by the U.S. consumer recession and global downturn. This months data shows those sectors declining and it will likely accelerate. After being one of the last metros to lose jobs on a year over year basis, Stockton is now down 1.2% year-year.

The Sacramento area has had a dismal 6 months in employment. This month wasn’t as bad, as there was real strength in education at all levels (private, public, higher ed and K-12), even more than the typical fall surge. Retail continues to be weak, and there will be less than the usual holiday surge next month.

The East Bay (Alameda, Contra Costa) continue to be the biggest job losers in the region, down 2.1%, over 22,000 jobs in the past 12 months. This is bad news for commuters from San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Solano counties.

San Francisco and San Jose continue to be the top performers in the state. They are still slightly positive on jobs year-year, but may turn negative in next months report. The financial market crisis and stock market crash will be felt in these high income areas.

About the Author

Ethan Jacob

Author & Editor

I am Ethan Jacob Executive Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, where I have a joint faculty appointment in the Eberhardt School of Business and the Public Policy Program in the McGeorge School of Law..

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